Many of you have been members of MPTrader for years, perhaps decades (I have been providing MPTrader.com analysis since February 2003!). Rarely do I take a victory lap about my stock, ETF, and market calls, largely because I have always thought my work should speak for itself, which obviates the need to bloviate and beat my chest to stroke my ego. At my core, I am a market nerd and Geek, not a slick-talking marketer (for better or worse).
Today, however, I will make an exception, taking a victory lap about my TSLA analysis!
On October 24, 2024, with TSLA trading at 152.90, I posted the following outlook for MPTrader members:
My BIG Picture setup work compels me to consider a very powerful, bullish outlook that projects to 400 on an intermediate-term timeframe. Today's whopping 19% upmove is approaching a test of key multi-MONTH and multi-YEAR lodged between 258 and 265 that if taken out and sustained, will trigger a next Target Zone of 300-315, and if hurdled, an intermediate-term Target Zone of 380-400. I can make a compelling technical argument that all of the price action in TSLA for the past two years represents a mega accumulation period that will provide the launch pad for a major bull phase. From a more granular, nearer-term tactical perspective, as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained in and around the 50 DMA, now at 229.32, TSLA will remain a "accumulate into weakness." ... Last is 152.90...
My attached Daily Chart shows the near-vertical trajectory of TSLA's stock price from the time of my update in late October (10/24/24 at 152.90) to last Friday's three-year high at 389.49, a whopping 150% advance in 6 weeks! (continued below my chart)...
Granted, a lot has gone correctly for TSLA and its richest man in the world (and getting richer) chairman, Elon Musk, during the past six weeks. To list a few:
-- TSLA's quarterly earnings (10/23/24) came in "less negative" than expected...
-- Ahead of the Presidential Election, as Trump's prospects of victory improved, gains in publicly traded companies that should benefit from Trump's policies of lower taxes, lower regulations, stronger global growth, etc. -- including TSLA, caught a bid...
-- Elon Musk aligning himself and heavily supporting the Trump presidential bid turned out to be a brilliantly calculated risk for Musk and TSLA...
In fact, in one of my many follow-up posts about TSLA, this is what I wrote early on the morning of November 6, 2024, the day after Trump won the election:
TSLA became part of "The Trump Trade" when Elon Musk went all-in for DJT, offering to become the "cost-cutter in charge" in a new Administration. Musk took an enormous risk, but he turned out to pick the winning side, and as such, TSLA has popped biggly this AM, up 12% at 282.50 as we speak, off of its pre-market high at 290.00, which we see on my attached Daily Chart positions the stock at its highest price in 16 months, ABOVE multi-month resistance at 265-270. As long as any forthcoming bout of weakness is contained above 260, TSLA points next to 300-315... Last is 282.50...
Although I had no idea what the background story might be that could propel TSLA from 152.90 to nearly 400, my Big Picture technical set up in October told me (us) in no uncertain terms that a powerful upside thrust should be anticipated.
So often, the technical setups provide clues about price direction while the backstory remains "hidden." Just because the fundamentals don't necessarily dovetail with the technical setup is hardly a reason to dismiss the directional potential implied by the chart work.
Of course, it helps that I have a reservoir of four decades of experience and chart analysis to draw upon, which helps me arrive at conclusions accompanied by degrees of confidence.
In actuality, the victory lap belongs to technical analysis-- and to someone who can discover and interpret its whispers and innuendos so you can apply the conclusions to your own portfolio and trading risk-management disciplines...
What's next for TSLA?
At Friday's close of 389.22, TSLA is just 6.5% from fully testing its November 2021 ATH at 414.50. Will it reach that price before year-end?
Join me and MPTrader members for our ongoing discussions about TSLA and many other individual stocks, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin as we enter the consequential final three weeks of 2024... MJP