ES Points Higher After Friday's Weekly ES Close Above the Previously Severed March 2020 Post-Pandemic Up Trendline
by Mike Paulenoff
April 13, 2025 • 1:06 PM EDT
Last Thursday afternoon (4/10/25), the commentary below is what I discussed with MPTrader members about my Big Picture technical setup work:
Tomorrow is the final session of the week. We get some big bank Earnings and PPI before the open, and more than likely, one or more POTUS televised events that undoubtedly will move markets one way or other. Technically, tomorrow's (Friday) close will be important to my Weekly Chart Work. The location of the close, above or below the major up trendline from the March 2020 Pandemic Low that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 5240, will be the main focal point of my weekly analysis. A close above 5240 will be considered a very constructive development for upside continuation toward a higher recovery rally target zone of 5500 to 5600. Conversely, a close beneath the trendline leaves ES more vulnerable to another loop down to revisit today's 5150-5200 intraday support window... Last is 5301.00...
Fast-forward to the conclusion of Friday's session, we see on my attached Big Picture Weekly Chart that ES closed at 5391.25, a full 2.9% above the March 2020 post-Pandemic up trendline that now cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 5242.00 in advance of Monday's session. The WEEKLY close satisfies my technical setup "requirement" for upside continuation into heavy, consequential heavy resistance lodged between 5500 and 5680.
In other words, ES has upside potential of another 2.2% to 5.5% before the vertical advance off of the Tariff Fallout Low at 4832.00 crosses the counter-trend vs new upleg boundary line.
In the former scenario, let's expect ES to roll over into another nosedive that will likely retest and break the April low, while the latter scenario points to upside continuation that revisits the ATH zone from 6100 to 6230. Right now, my technical bias is for scenario #1 to unfold... UNLESS just about everything starts to fall into place much sooner than later, such several nations sign tariff deals with Washington, 10-year Benchmark U.S. Treasury YIELD rolls over sharply, pressing again beneath 4%, and the down-spiraling U.S. Dollar exhibits signs of stability.
Saturday morning's 145% tariff exemption announcement for U.S. chip, phone, and tech equipment manufacturers (importers) has popped the weekend market-making sites up about 1.25% in anticipation of a higher futures market (ES) opening later this evening. If the strength holds up overnight, ES will be poised to make a run at 5500 during Monday's session... MJP
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
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