Getting The Jump On MPC's Rally
by Mike Paulenoff
April 3, 2022 • 6:50 PM EDT
On Monday March 21 Mike Paulenoff posted a bullish alert on MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corp) to MPTrader members, writing:
"MPC popped out of my research over the weekend largely because its technical setup argues that all of the action off of its February high at 81.39 (see my attached Daily Chart) has carved out a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern above 72.50, and if preserved, projects to a thrust into a new upleg above 81.39 towards my next optimal target zone of 88 to 92 thereafter. Today's up-gap open and climb above the prior rally peak (79.93 in 3/11) has the right look of the initiation of a new upleg. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above my first warnings level at 75.50, my work will remain 'very friendly' to higher prices in MPC."
MPC was trading at 79.38 at the time, and within 36 hours of Mike's post the stock was off to the races. It thrust into the anticipated new upleg that propelled prices relentlessly higher for a 10-session stretch that hit a high of 87.10 last Friday, April 1, 2022, a full 9.7% above the price when Mike issued his alert.
In Mike's MPC analysis posted this past Friday morning, he commented: "While the price of oil is under pressure, oil exploration names remain bid this AM... We see MPC indeed thrust out of a bullish Coil formation back on 3/21 and has not looked back since, climbing to a new high at 86.68 as we speak this AM, en route to my next optimal target zone of 88-92. Only a reversal and close beneath 82.60 will argue that the current upleg has peaked... Last is 86.64."
MPC is another example of Mike's actionable tactical technical signals he posts to our discussion room multiple times during trading hours every day, in addition to religiously discussing and answering member inquiries about individual stocks, macro indices, equity futures indices, ETFs, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Join Mike and our members for this week's idea generation that is designed to help you benefit and profit from trend analysis in the macros indices, energy, autos, financials, big technology, and much more.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On February 26, 2025, just 30 minutes before NVDA (Nvidia Corp) was scheduled to release its highly anticipated and potentially consequential Quarterly Earnings Report, I reiterated my most recent analysis uploaded before the opening bell. This is what I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room:Technically, my Big Picture setup work on NVDA argues that the 2/03/25 low represented the END of a major correction that originated at NVDA's "orthodox" price high of 152.89 on 11/21/24-- the session following the company's November 20, 2024 Earnings report.
Before the market opening on February 4, 2025, hours after Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reported stellar Earnings, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members:In reaction to Earnings, PLTR has sustained strength above my "outlier" target zone of 96 to 100, which requires new upside pattern parameters. My optimal price path from atop the post-Earnings, 25% upmove points to an immediate objective of 105-08, followed by a contained pullback into the 95 area, ahead of a thrust toward 115-118 thereafter... Last is 103.50...
On January 6, 2025, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members about the Chinese equity names--Alibaba (BABA) in particular:BABA-- For anyone who wants an outlier contrarian play for the first two-quarters of the Trump Agenda, let's consider BABA. Purely from a technical perspective, I can make a compelling technical argument that the 12/20/24 low at 81.5 ended the larger correction off of the Oct 2024 upleg (from 71.80) high at 121.06. To confirm the low, any weakness must hold support at 81.50-83.
Never a dull moment since January 20, 2025! This weekend, POTUS imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, which go into effect on Tuesday. From an initial market perspective, tariff trade war fears have triggered a risk-off reaction from Bitcoin-- the only highly liquid weekend market that can give us insight into what to expect for Sunday evening and Monday morning trading.
On December 27, 2024, with META trading at 595.26, this is what I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room in response to a member's question:My pattern work from the October 2023 low at 279.40 to the December 2024 ATH at 638.40 (+128%) tells me that META is at a technical crossroad now... META's most recent upleg from the 11/19/24 low at 547.71 to the 12/11/24 ATH at 638.40 has the "right look" of a completed advance.
