Identifying Upside Potential In XLV
by Mike Paulenoff
September 2, 2024 • 5:54 PM EDT
On August 15, with XLV (Healthcare SPDR, ETF) approaching Mike Paulenoff's target zone (noted in an April 18th post), Mike responded to an MPTrader member's question about whether it was "time to sell and find something with more potential?"
Mike wrote: "My short answer: no, it is not yet time to sell (although I will never dissuade anyone from taking profits and from ringing the cash register). My pattern and momentum work argue that upside potential extends from 156 to 161. That said, any bout of weakness that presses and closes beneath 148 will neutralize my current outlook. Bottom Line: Unless XLV reverses this week's upmove by declining beneath 148 (down about 2.5%), the current setup projects to a minimum upside target of 156 and a maximum target of 161... Last is 152.26 (8/15/24)..."
Fast-forward to this past Wednesday August 28: XLV had climbed to a new ATH of 156.44, which pushed the price structure into the lower boundary of Mike's optimal upside target zone of 156-161.
As Mike explained to members that day, with XLV trading at 155.79, "This also means it is time to be cautious about any forthcoming weakness that breaks and sustains below 154.00, the level that triggers an initial warning signal that the post-April upleg from 138.41 to 154.66 is exhausted and vulnerable to a meaningful correction."
XLV closed last week at higher ATHs of 157.20. From the time of Mike's original post to members on April 18 at 138.46, XLV has climbed 13.5%.
What's next for XLV and the healthcare sector, in general? Login this week to join Mike and our MPTrader community for ongoing discussions about the opportunistic technical setups and fundamental inputs on healthcare as well as many individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, currencies, commodities, and Bitcoin.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On December 13, 2024, with NVDA trading at 132.54, down 13.3% from its All-Time High at 152.89 (11/21/24), and bearing down on a critical 8-week support plateau at 131-132, this is what I posted to MPTraders:NVDA Update: Approaching key support in the vicinity of 132 that if violated and sustained, could unleash the downside potential derived from a two-month top formation (everyone sees the Head and Shoulders formation by now).
Friday afternoon, fifteen minutes before the closing bell in the equity indices, this was my parting comment about Bitcoin:Heading into the weekend, the technical setup argues against holding shorts in Bitcoin... no?...
Many of you have been members of MPTrader for years, perhaps decades (I have been providing MPTrader.com analysis since February 2003!). Rarely do I take a victory lap about my stock, ETF, and market calls, largely because I have always thought my work should speak for itself, which obviates the need to bloviate and beat my chest to stroke my ego. At my core, I am a market nerd and Geek, not a slick-talking marketer (for better or worse).
Back on November 12, 2024, fellow MPTrader member "Rayray" wrote the following when ARCH (Archer Aviation) was trading at $4.83:Mike, as you may recall I have been an active follower of ACHR. I no longer have a position that I trade off of and am on the sidelines watching a move that I should have participated in . That said, is this the move to $9.00 that has been on the table for a while ?... My analysis: NO!...
On the morning of Tuesday, November 12, 2024, I posted the following Heads-Up to MPTrader members concerning my DIS (Disney) analysis ahead of earnings:DIS (Disney) reports earnings on Thursday morning. Technically, DIS approaches Earnings in strong near-term technical condition that argues for a positive reaction to earnings. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 94.80, DIS points higher to 105.10/40, and if taken out, then to 113-115... Last is 100.25...