Getting The Jump On Energy ETF's 30% Spike ... What's Next?
by Mike Paulenoff
November 14, 2021 • 12:00 AM EST
Two months ago, on the afternoon of September 13, Mike Paulenoff brought to the attention of MPTrader members the intriguing and potentially opportunistic technical setup exhibited by the XOP -- the SPDR Oil and Gas Production and Exploration ETF.
Mike wrote: "I am not sure what the backstory is on this potentially very bullish technical setup will become (inflation, delivery problems, confrontation in the OPEC producing states, frigid winter in the US and Europe?), but one look at my attached Big Picture Chart suggests strongly that XOP has been under accumulation for nearly 2 years, 3 months, which has carved out a large inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom... XOP today is trading above ALL of my near and intermediate-term MAs, which are clustered together in a relatively tight area beneath the price structure, 'threatening' to propel XOP to the upside towards a confrontation with multi-year resistance at 98 to 100... if taken out, will trigger MUCH HIGHER PROJECTIONS for XOP."
The rest, as they say, is history! Within a week of Mike's "heads-up" to mptrader members, XOP was climbing sharply, a rally that spanned a 7-week period, and propelled the energy ETF to a 2-1/2 year high at 112.85 last Monday, a full 30% above the level XOP was trading (87.13) when Mike issued his "heads-up" technical alert.
What's next for XOP? Is the energy sector due for a pause? Will it participate and possibly drive a year-end rally in the benchmark indices? Join Mike and our MPTrader members for ongoing intraday discussions about energy and XOP, as well as many other stocks, macro indices, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Over one month ago, on Monday morning, 9/09/24, I posted the following NVDA update for our members:My near-term pattern work makes a compelling argument that the corrective downleg from the 8/16 high at 131 is nearing downside exhaustion and completion in and around 100 (Friday's low was 100.95). That said, unless and until NVDA climbs above 106.30 to 108.
On August 27, 2024, I reviewed my near and intermediate-term technical setup on copper (gold, silver, oil) producer FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) for MPTrader members, writing:My attached Daily Chart shows the 30% correction from the May 2024 high to the August 2024 low, which my pattern work argues ended the retracement of the first upleg of a new bull phase in FCX that began at the 10/23/23 low of 33.08 and ended at the 5/20/24 high of 55.24. The August 2024 upmove from 39.08 (8/05/24) to 46.
On August 5, hours before its after-market earnings report, Mike Paulenoff posted a bullish alert on AI-juggernaut PLTR, writing:"Bottom Line Technically: As long as any forthcoming weakness on a closing basis remains above key support lodged between 19.60 and 21.50, PLTR has the right look of nearing the completion of the correction from its 7/08/24 high at 29.83, and the initiation of another advance that will extend the upside potential off of a two-year base-accumulation setup."The stock, trading at 23.
Three hours before the July Fed 31, 2024 (FOMC) meeting, I posted the following chart commentary about my technical setup work on 10-year Treasury YIELD and its actionable longer-term Treasury bond ETF, the TLT (20+ Year T-bond, ETF):Heading toward Fed Time, 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF) certainly appear to be anticipating lower interest rate news or innuendos from the FOMC statement (guidance) and Jay Powell in his post-meeting press conference.
On August 15, with XLV (Healthcare SPDR, ETF) approaching Mike Paulenoff's target zone (noted in an April 18th post), Mike responded to an MPTrader member's question about whether it was "time to sell and find something with more potential?" Mike wrote: "My short answer: no, it is not yet time to sell (although I will never dissuade anyone from taking profits and from ringing the cash register). My pattern and momentum work argue that upside potential extends from 156 to 161.