On August 27, 2024, I reviewed my near and intermediate-term technical setup on copper (gold, silver, oil) producer FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) for MPTrader members, writing:
My attached Daily Chart shows the 30% correction from the May 2024 high to the August 2024 low, which my pattern work argues ended the retracement of the first upleg of a new bull phase in FCX that began at the 10/23/23 low of 33.08 and ended at the 5/20/24 high of 55.24.
The August 2024 upmove from 39.08 (8/05/24) to 46.01 (8/26/24) has the right look of a completed initial upmove of a budding upleg that my intermediate-term work projects will climb to 60+ before completion. As long as any acute weakness is contained above the August low (39.08), my intermediate-term scenario will remain intact.
From a more granular nearer-term perspective, I have added annotations to my attached Daily Chart showing key resistance from 46.20 to 48.40 that needs to be hurdled to trigger powerful upside traction, while key support resides from 44.00 down to 42.00, which needs contain near-term pullback weakness to preserve the bullish form exhibited by the August advance...
Fundamentally, my perception of the FCX macroeconomic landscape is represented by tight global supplies juxtaposed against the threat (fear) of recession. My Big Picture Chart setup argues that the former will outweigh the latter (with a dose of Federal Reserve liquidity injections in the form of lower rates to avert recession) and will dictate FCX price direction in the upcoming months.
After my update, with FCX at 44.95, FCX proceeded to press lower into a deep but consequentially successful September 10 retest of the August low, hitting 39.34, just $0.26 and 0.7% from the 39.08 level where FCX pivoted to the upside into a powerful, vertical assault during the subsequent two weeks, precipitated and propelled by fundamentally supportive events -- the first Federal Reserve rate cut in 4 years, and China's announcement of an extensive stimulus program to reinvigorate its sluggish, deflating economy.
On September 19th, the day after the Fed’s rate cut, I posted a follow-up analysis of FCX for our members:
FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.) is a cyclical name on my radar screen that has enormous upside potential fundamentally (economically) in a new accommodative rate cut cycle accompanied by a falling Dollar... overlaid on my constructive near and intermediate-term technical setup work...
My attached Big Picture Daily FCX Chart argues that the 2024 Double Bottom in the vicinity of 39.10/40 pivoted off of powerful prior multi-month COIL support that is a classic "return to the upside breakout point" ahead of the initiation of another significant advance that should take out the May 2024 high at 55.24… As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above an up-curling 200 DMA, now at 42.84, my near-term setup work will remain very constructive... Last is 45.51...
Since my bullish assessment of the setup work on FCX, the stock has climbed from 44.95 to last Friday's high at 52.26, or +16%, and +32.8% from the successful September retest low at 39.34.
Will FCX continue to make a b-line for my optimal intermediate-term target zone in and around 60, or take a breather at some point? Where might a pullback find renewed buying interest?
If my style of financial market analysis complements or adds value to your work, join me and MPTrader members ASAP for our ongoing analysis and discussions about FCX, as well as many individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin, as traders and investors head into Q4 and the advent of another earnings season.
