Promising Technical Setups in Copper and FCX

Copper and FCX (Freeport-McMoRan)-- While we are on the subject of the metals (see GLD analysis in my previous post), Copper futures prices have been on a tear during the first 5 weeks of 2025. To be more precise, nearby Copper is up 16% so far this year (see my attached Daily Chart), and has inflicted serious technical damage to the heretofore dominant downtrend from the May 2024 high at 5.32. 

I suspect the relentless vertical price climb is the result of a confluence of supply disruption/shortage factors coupled with rising demand expectations from the electrification energy transition, which requires increasing amounts of copper. 

For years, we have been hearing about the coming copper shortage. Perhaps this price rise is initiating a period of diminishing supply versus increasing demand in a fundamental setup for Copper that, for a change, is NOT negatively impacted by overproduction and dumping from China. If anything, China's Copper fundamentals are more balanced domestically, meaning it is much less likely to have huge excess supply to dump into the market.

Technically, I can make a compelling argument that Copper futures ENDED a major corrective period at the 12/31/24 low of 4.01, a full 25% beneath the 5/20/24 two year peak at 5.32. Furthermore, the advance off of the 12/31/24 low at 4.01 exhibits bullish form, which informs us that Copper prices have higher-- perhaps considerably higher-- prices ahead... (continued below with FCX)...

From the perspective of Copper producer FCX, a similar setup appears to be emerging. That is to say, FCX has the right look of completing a major 37% multi-month correction at its 2/03/25 low of 34.89 (see my attached Daily chart). A sustained climb and close above 39.80 for starters (the 50 DMA) will trigger a preliminary upside reversal signal, while follow-through above 41.00 will confirm a significant technical U-Turn that will trigger a projected run at confronting the 200 DMA, now at 45.40... 

As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 32.80 on a closing basis, the promising technical setups in Copper (the metal) and in FCX argue that we give the benefit of the doubt to the start of a bull phase underpinned by tightening supply/demand conditions as well as the advent of "animal spirits" unleashed by Trump's policy initiatives... Last in FCX is 38.91