New Upleg In Oil

Crude Oil and XLE (Energy ETF)-- EIA Weekly Oil Inventories declined much more than expected, which could be one of the reasons for the $1.80 and 2% upmove in Crude Oil prices this AM, despite an otherwise rocky start to the session from many of our risk-on markets. 

My attached 4-hour chart of August Crude Oil argues strongly that yest.'s low at 80.22 ended a 5% correction from the 7/05/24 rally high at 84.52, which if accurate, means that today's strength is the initial upside pop of a new upleg within the larger advance off of the June low at 72.08. 

That said, however, to gain serious upside traction, August Crude needs to climb and hurdle next resistance at 83.15/75 to open a pathway to challenge the July high-zone from 84.00 to 84.50. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 80.00, my pattern work will remain constructive... last is 82.46... 

As for the XLE (Oil ETF), fellow member Abbas (AB0616) is correct when he comments that XLE is breaking out above key resistance. My attached Daily Chart shows today's surge has climbed above the 50 DMA, now at 91.35 and July resistance at 92.10/20, which if sustained, points next to 95.00/30 in route to a retest of the April 2024 high-zone of 97.75 to 98.90. 

From a Big Picture perspective, as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 90.00/20, my pattern work views current strength off of the June-July 2024 low-zone of 87.60-88.39 as the initiation of a new upleg within the larger advance from the January 2024 low at 78.98 that projects into the 105-107 Target Window... last is 93.14...

FinancialJuice