Eyeing SPY Ahead of Friday Jobs Report (Next Consequential Directional Price Catalyst)

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  May 2, 2024-- Pre-Market Update: The day after the Fed meeting... The day before the monthly Jobs Report... Weekly Insurance Claims... AAPL, COIN, and DKNG earnings after the close... 

As I mentioned in my final post last evening, the whipsaw price action in the immediate aftermath of the Fed statement and Powell presser left me with the impression that SPY and ES are carving out sideways digestion or bottom patterns into the next consequential directional price catalyst, which happens to be the Jobs Report tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET...

This AM's up-gap open in SPY (see below) positions the ETF right in the middle of its contracting range ahead of tomorrow's data. SPY is likely to circle the 502 to 506 area into 8:30 AM ET on Friday, at which time I cannot rule out a violent reaction to the news that propels SPY along the green or red dotted lines. At the moment, my big-picture technical set up tilts my directional bias to the downside, which if accurate, means SPY is heading for a retest of the April low at 493.86, and if breached, to 487-490... Last is 503.63...

On the subject of my big picture setup, my attached Daily ES chart shows that the price structure is contained above the nearest-term support line off of the 4/19/24 pivot low (4963.50) that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 5048 today, and below the down-sloping 20 DMA, now at 5126. Today's price action should keep ES contained between 5048 and 5126 (and on the upside, possibly below the 8 Day EMA, now at 5087) into tomorrow AM's Jobs Report. My directional bias in reaction to the Jobs data is to the downside for a retest of the April low at 4963.50 that could press the index toward a challenge of the 200 DMA, now at 4817, where the larger corrective process off of the 4/01/24 ATH at 5333.50 will approach 10%... Last is 5078.25...