Oil Looking Higher - Market Analysis for Mar 1st, 2012

The decline in nearby NYMEX Crude Oil prices from last Friday's high at 109.95 to yesterday's low at 104.84 returned the price structure to its prior multi-month upside breakout plateau at 104.50 (from Feb 19). This contained the selling pressure and attracted buying interest that then propelled oil above 107.00, in what looks like the completion of a near-term correction within the larger bull move off of last October's low at 74.95.

While I cannot rule out another loop down to confirm the 105.00-104.84 low, my work nonetheless indicates that oil likely is starting a new up-leg that has as its next immediate target 114.60-115.20, which may interest traders of the U.S. Oil Fund (USO).

Traders of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) may be interested in the trend in spot gold, which looks like it is in "spring position" for a thrust above $1725.25.

That should trigger upside continuation towards $1742-$1748, at which point the market will provide clues as to whether or not it is in the midst of a new bull leg or a recovery rally that is destined to loop to the downside for a retest of $1700-$1690.