NYMEX Oil Approaching a Test of Critical and Consequential Support Once Again

While my nearer-term outlook identifies $48.00 as the line in the sand that separates potential downside acceleration to revisit the March low at $42.03 from another recovery upleg to retest and hurdled the May high at $63.62, let's notice that recent/current weakness is heading for another probe of NYMEX Crude's long-term (Dec 1998) support line, now cutting across the price axis in the vicinity of $46.50.

The first breach of the mega-support line occurred in March at $45,75, and although Oil pressed nearly 10% beneath the line, it reversed back above the support line within 48 hours.

That said, if Crude breaks and sustains beneath the support line again, Oil prices increasingly will be vulnerable to a plunge to new bear-market lows-- and a press towards the Dec 2008 low at $32.50 cannot be ruled out.

Bottom line: all eyes on $48.00, which if violated, a refocus on $46.50.