A Look at the Set-Up in AAPL Ahead of Tonight's Earnings Report

Since its recovery-rally high at 101 last Thursday, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has given back about 40% of the entire upmove off of the 91.50 low on June 27.

Key support resides between 97.00 and 95.50 intraday, however, with earnings due for release after tonight's close, my sense is that AAPL risk from either side of current levels around 97.00 is 5% to 6%, or 101-103 on the high side to 93.00- 91.50 on the low side in reaction to tonight's news.

A spike that takes out the upper end of the range will confirm the completion of an April-July base-like pattern, while a break beneath 93.00-91.50 will point towards a full-fledged retest of the May low at 89.00.